UFC on FOX 12 Breakdown: Clay Guida vs. Dennis Bermudez

By the Numbers

Ever since his win over Anthony Pettis, Clay Guida has caught a case of Frankie Edgar Syndrome. He's way better than his record currently implies. Guida has fought the best of the best at lightweight and is currently 2-1 as a featherweight. His only losses since 2010 come against Benson Henderson, Gray Maynard, and Chad Mendes, the latter of which handed Guida the first TKO of his career. In the other corner we have Dennis Bermudez, the runner-up of The Ultimate Fighter Season 14. Bermudez has won 6 in a row since 2012 and is getting his largest threat to date.

What's at Stake

A division long dominated by Jose Aldo is beginning to show signs of fresh talent. Realistically, this has to be Guida's last strong push in the UFC. Defeating Bermudez brings him a little closer to a title shot, but it still may be some time before we see Guida push for the strap given the solid defeat he suffered at the hands of contender Chad Mendes. A solid win over a UFC veteran will bring Dennis Bermudez into the top ten of the featherweights. A win for either will likely lead to another top ten opponent.

Road to Victory

This is the classic tale of two men who love to take their opponents to the mat and grind it to a submission or a decision. Normally this is Guida's bread and butter, but at 91% takedown defense, don't expect too many shots from that end. Bermudez may feel more comfortable imposing his wrestling game on Guida given this fact, but Guida doesn't go down easily either. Bermudez has also yet to face anyone of Guida's level in the UFC.

That usually means it boils down to the stand-up. Guida is a stick and move fighter, sometimes to such a fault that's it's just move and move. Bermudez will have to chase and catch the constantly moving Guida which has been a puzzle many fighters have been unable to solve. As a bit of a wild striker, he leaves too many openings for a seasoned veteran such as Guida. The sooner Bermudez ends it, the better chance he has.

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