By The Numbers
This is a battle between the number 9 and 10 heavyweights according the the UFC, and both are on a downhill slide. Mir is renowned for his submission prowess from both dominant positions and from within his guard. Overeem has almost as many submission wins by guillotine chokes with 8 as Mir does total submissions with 9. Overeem also has a distinct advantage in regards to TKO wins. On paper, this looks like another certain victory for Overeem.
What's At Stake
UFC doesn't specifically state that a match falls under Loser Leaves Town rules, but there has been much speculation as to whether or not one of these competitors will no longer be involved in the company after tonight. Mir has dropped three in a row and Overeem two and with lots of hungry new competitors entering the division, it's hard to imagine either as more than a stepping stone at this point, but both could still have flourishing careers in other promotions. It's hard to imagine Mir, who carried the UFC's heavyweight division for years, rocking the Bellator banner.
Road to Victory
Both men have notorious weaknesses and well honed strengths. Mir has a more varied submission strategy. His open guard is one of the best in the business and he does some great work from it, but don't expect much else. Overeem's guillotine is his go to submission, but he's also tremendously better on his feet than Mir is. Mir's main weakness is Overeem's main strength - the clinch, especially along the cage. Carwin, Cormier, and Barnett were all able to successfully pin Mir against the cage and seriously hurt him. Overeem was punishing both of his last two opponents against the cage until they were able to adjust and defeat him. If Overeem comes into the fight prepared mentally, he's most dangerous. Mir may not have the physical gifts that come with a diet of racehorses, but mentally he's usually more prepared than most.